Nurse Demand Analysis in Finland 2025-2030: Needs, Challenges, and Solutions

Nurse Demand Analysis for the Years 2025–2030

The purpose of this analysis is to determine how many nurses will be needed over the next five years in relation to the increasing elderly population and nurse retirements. Additionally, the number of new nurses and the resulting nurse shortage will be examined.

This calculation specifically looks at the demand for Practical Nurses (Lähihoitajat) in elderly care and does not consider the demand for Registered Nurses (Sairaanhoitajat), which is also substantial.

Current Situation

Currently, there are 209,253 registered practical nurses, but not all of them are actively employed.

According to the employment office, there are 2,342 open positions for practical nurses.

Annual Nurse Retirements:

2025: 2,167
2026: 2,108
2027: 1,963
2028: 1,889
2029: 1,716
2030: 1,708

Each year, 7,000 new practical nurses graduate, but 40% continue their education or do not enter the workforce. Read more: YLE News

This means that approximately 4,200 new nurses enter the workforce annually.

Annual Nurse Demand (2025–2030)

The following table calculates nurse demand based on a staffing ratio of 0.6, along with the resulting nurse shortage:

Year	Over 80-Year-Olds	Care Need (40%)	Nurse Need (0.6)	Retirements	Additional Need	Graduates	Nurse Shortage
2025	359 728	143 891	86 335	2 167	2 342	4 200	309
2026	383 247	153 299	91 979	2 108	5 645	4 200	3 553
2027	407 239	162 896	97 737	1 963	5 758	4 200	3 521
2028	430 315	172 126	103 276	1 889	5 538	4 200	3 227
2029	451 086	180 434	108 261	1 716	4 985	4 200	2 501
2030	468 925	187 570	112 542	1 716	4 281	4 200	1 797

In 2025, the nurse shortage is 309, but it grows to over 3,552 nurses by 2026. By 2029, the shortage remains at 2,500, despite new nurses entering the workforce.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The demand for nurses will increase significantly over the next five years, and investment in recruitment is essential. Without additional measures, by 2030 the nurse shortage could reach nearly 15,000, which may compromise care quality and availability.

Work-Based Immigration

At least 3,000 additional nurses per year are needed over the next five years to cover the shortfall.
Accelerated training programs and qualification processes for immigrants are essential.

Development of the Education System

Improving retention – Only 60% of graduates remain in the profession, and this proportion must be increased.
Expanding apprenticeship training and improving salaries may help retain workers.
Establishing a continuous training pathway from abroad to Finland. Superkoulu has been developed to train practical nurses from their home country to Finland. This system is already in place.

Technological Solutions

Automation and digital solutions can reduce the need for nurses by easing workloads.
Remote care models and AI-assisted care can offer alternative solutions.

If no action is taken, the nurse shortage will become critical by 2028. Immediate measures are required to ensure the sustainability of the healthcare sector.

Most importantly, existing solutions must be implemented immediately – not just when emergency staffing is needed the following week. This means continuous training and steady recruitment of foreign workers, allowing for the ongoing development and optimization of the training pathway.

How the Regular Care Need for Over 80-Year-Olds Was Estimated (40%)

As the population ages, the need for elderly care services increases significantly. While precise statistics on service use in this age group are limited, we can make a reasonable estimate based on previous data.

Analysis of Elderly Care Service Needs

2010: In Finland’s six largest cities, approximately 24.8% of people over 75 received either home care, outpatient services, or 24-hour care.
2020: The use of regular elderly care services was around 30% for those over 75.
80+ age group: Their service needs are higher than those aged 75–79, as their functional capacity declines faster.
Various reports suggest that 35–45% of people over 80 need regular home care, assisted living, or 24-hour care.
We have taken an average of 40%.